Prediction Analysis

Closed Trades

175

Win Rate

47.43%

Realized P/L

+$279.00

Profit Factor

1.08

Time of Day Analysis

Performance is grouped by the time the prediction was opened, using regular U.S. market hours.

Market Open

09:30–10:30

Trades

Win Rate

35%

Total P/L

-$267.17

Avg P/L

-$13.36

Avg Confidence

70.2

Wins / Losses

7 / 12

Consider tightening prediction.min_confidence for signals in this period. For morning weakness specifically, review early_detection.morning_prominence_factor, early_detection.morning_swing_factor, early_detection.morning_distance_factor, early_detection.morning_wedge_r2_factor and early_detection.morning_wedge_convergence_factor.

Late Morning

10:30–12:00

Trades

Win Rate

49.09%

Total P/L

+$284.79

Avg P/L

+$5.18

Avg Confidence

68.9

Wins / Losses

27 / 28

Performance is mixed. Keep prediction.min_confidence, prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent stable until more trades accumulate.

Midday

12:00–14:00

Trades

Win Rate

46.38%

Total P/L

+$136.07

Avg P/L

+$1.97

Avg Confidence

68.0

Wins / Losses

32 / 32

Performance is mixed. Keep prediction.min_confidence, prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent stable until more trades accumulate.

Afternoon

14:00–16:00

Trades

Win Rate

54.84%

Total P/L

+$125.31

Avg P/L

+$4.04

Avg Confidence

64.9

Wins / Losses

17 / 13

Performance is mixed. Keep prediction.min_confidence, prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent stable until more trades accumulate.

Pattern Performance

Each trade is credited to every pattern that participated in the original prediction. Parameter names in the tuning suggestions are clickable and open the Parameters page.

Pattern	Trades	Wins	Win Rate	Total P/L	Avg P/L	Avg Confidence	Suggested Tuning
Double top	63	30	47.62%	+$350.55	+$5.56	68.7	Tune double_top.max_top_difference_percent: lower it to require more similar highs. Tune double_top.min_pullback_percent: raise it to require a deeper valley between the two tops. Tune double_top.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require the second top to occur closer to the current bar. Tune pattern_reliability.double_top to change the base confidence assigned to this pattern. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost.
Double bottom	52	23	44.23%	-$203.94	-$3.92	67.0	Low win rate: first review prediction.min_confidence. Raising it will reduce marginal trades across all patterns. Tune double_bottom.max_bottom_difference_percent: lower it to require more similar lows. Tune double_bottom.min_bounce_percent: raise it to require a stronger rebound between bottoms. Tune double_bottom.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require the second bottom closer to the latest price. Tune pattern_reliability.double_bottom to change the base confidence assigned to this pattern. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost. If entries are directionally correct but exits are poor, review prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent before changing the pattern detector.
Falling wedge	32	14	43.75%	-$184.59	-$5.77	71.1	Low win rate: first review prediction.min_confidence. Raising it will reduce marginal trades across all patterns. Tune falling_wedge.min_points_per_side: increase it to require more confirmed swing points. Tune falling_wedge.min_r2: raise it to require cleaner converging trend lines. Tune falling_wedge.min_convergence_percent: raise it to demand stronger convergence. Tune falling_wedge.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require a fresher pattern. Tune pattern_reliability.falling_wedge to change its base confidence. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost. If entries are directionally correct but exits are poor, review prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent before changing the pattern detector.
Triple bottom	11	6	54.55%	+$117.37	+$10.67	61.0	Tune the triple_bottom similarity/tolerance parameters in [triple_bottom], especially the maximum bottom difference and minimum bounce/swing requirements. Tune pattern_reliability.triple_bottom to change its base confidence.
Triple top	9	5	55.56%	+$107.17	+$11.91	71.1	Tune the triple_top similarity/tolerance parameters in [triple_top], especially the maximum top difference and minimum pullback/swing requirements. Tune pattern_reliability.triple_top to change its base confidence.
Bear flag	9	3	33.33%	-$142.15	-$15.79	70.6	Low win rate: first review prediction.min_confidence. Raising it will reduce marginal trades across all patterns. Tune bear_flag.min_impulse_percent: raise it to require a stronger initial bearish move. Tune bear_flag.max_flag_retrace_percent: lower it to reject excessive counter-trend rebounds. Tune bear_flag.min_flag_slope_percent: raise it to require a clearer upward-sloping consolidation. Tune bear_flag.min_r2: raise it to require a cleaner flag channel. Tune bear_flag.impulse_lookback and bear_flag.flag_lookback to change the formation horizon. Tune pattern_reliability.bear_flag to change its base confidence. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost. If entries are directionally correct but exits are poor, review prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent before changing the pattern detector.
Rising wedge	8	5	62.5%	+$234.37	+$29.30	68.4	The pattern may be under-rated. Consider a small increase to pattern_reliability.rising_wedge. Tune rising_wedge.min_points_per_side: increase it to require more confirmed swing points. Tune rising_wedge.min_r2: raise it to require cleaner converging trend lines. Tune rising_wedge.min_convergence_percent: raise it to demand stronger convergence. Tune rising_wedge.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require a fresher pattern. Tune pattern_reliability.rising_wedge to change its base confidence.
Bull flag	7	4	57.14%	+$36.24	+$5.18	64.9	Tune bull_flag.min_impulse_percent: raise it to require a stronger initial bullish move. Tune bull_flag.max_flag_retrace_percent: lower it to reject flags that retrace too much of the impulse. Tune bull_flag.min_flag_slope_percent: raise it to require a more clearly downward-sloping consolidation. Tune bull_flag.min_r2: raise it to require a cleaner flag channel. Tune bull_flag.impulse_lookback and bull_flag.flag_lookback to change the time horizon used to form the pattern. Tune pattern_reliability.bull_flag to change its base confidence.

Pattern Combinations

Combinations can reveal whether two or more agreeing patterns perform better than individual signals alone.

Combination	Trades	Wins	Win Rate	Total P/L	Interpretation
Double top	56	27	48.21%	+$329.04	Mixed result. Keep current settings and gather more observations.
Double bottom	44	19	43.18%	-$236.12	Weak combination. Consider requiring higher individual pattern scores before allowing this combination to trigger a trade.
Falling wedge	25	11	44%	-$190.46	Weak combination. Consider requiring higher individual pattern scores before allowing this combination to trigger a trade.
Bear flag	9	3	33.33%	-$142.15	Weak combination. Consider requiring higher individual pattern scores before allowing this combination to trigger a trade.
Triple bottom	8	5	62.5%	+$126.40	Mixed result. Keep current settings and gather more observations.
Bull flag	7	4	57.14%	+$36.24	Mixed result. Keep current settings and gather more observations.
Double bottom + Falling wedge	6	3	50%	+$23.54	Mixed result. Keep current settings and gather more observations.
Rising wedge	5	4	80%	+$182.81	Strong combination. Consider giving agreeing-pattern confirmation slightly more weight.
Triple top	5	3	60%	+$137.22	Mixed result. Keep current settings and gather more observations.
Double top + Triple top	4	2	50%	-$30.05	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.
Double top + Rising wedge	3	1	33.33%	+$51.56	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.
Double bottom + Triple bottom	2	1	50%	+$8.64	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.
Falling wedge + Triple bottom	1	0	0%	-$17.67	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.